U.S. futures were largely flat early Wednesday as traders braced for a packed day of earnings headlined by Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). The chipmaker’s quarterly update is expected to be a major catalyst for sentiment around the booming – and increasingly volatile – artificial intelligence trade. Investors will also be watching results from Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW) and Target (NYSE:TGT) for clues about consumer resilience ahead of the crucial holiday season, while the Federal Reserve is due to release minutes from its October policy meeting.
Futures little changed
U.S. equity futures showed minimal movement by 02:37 ET, with contracts linked to the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all hovering near the unchanged mark. The quiet start follows another sharp selloff on Tuesday, which extended a multi-day pullback driven by anxiety over debt-fueled AI investment and stretched tech valuations.
Semiconductor names such as Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL), and Micron (NASDAQ:MU) retreated again, weighing heavily on the Nasdaq Composite.
Adding to the unease, Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey identified the biggest “tail risk” facing markets as the possibility that the AI boom is a “bubble.”
Among individual movers, Home Depot (NYSE:HD) slid 6% after cutting its full-year guidance, a downbeat sign ahead of a flurry of retail results expected this week.
Fresh data added mixed signals: ADP reported that private-sector job cuts slowed in the four weeks through Nov. 1, while federal data showed a jump in continuing jobless claims from mid-September to mid-October.
Spotlight turns to Nvidia earnings
Nvidia now takes center stage. With the company sitting at a $4.41 trillion market valuation and accounting for more than 7% of the S&P 500, its performance and guidance carry outsized influence over the broader market—both in terms of stock prices and the AI-linked boost to the U.S. economy, analysts at Capital Economics noted.
Consensus forecasts compiled by Bloomberg point to third-quarter revenue of $55.19 billion and adjusted operating income of $36.46 billion.
Stifel analysts commented that “[w]e expect the near-term investor debate to remain centered on the sustainability of infrastructure investment,” despite signs of ongoing hyperscale spending. They also warned that concerns about extensive AI-related deal-making—much of it tied to Nvidia—have “increased as well,” though they still see the firm “best positioned” to capitalize on growing AI compute demand.
Nvidia shares fell 2.8% on Tuesday ahead of the release.
Lowe’s, Target prepare to report
Before markets open, Lowe’s and Target will deliver their latest results, joined by off-price retailer TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX). Walmart (NYSE:WMT) is due to report on Thursday.
Investors have been paying extra attention to retail this week after an extended government shutdown deprived markets of key consumer data. Home Depot’s gloomy update on Tuesday cast a cautious tone. The company said hopes that falling mortgage rates would revive demand did not play out, with customers avoiding big-ticket renovations amid lingering uncertainty driven by elevated U.S. tariffs.
Fed minutes in focus
Later Wednesday, the Fed will publish minutes from its October meeting. Policymakers cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% last month, after a similar reduction in September.
However, Chair Jerome Powell later warned that—despite market expectations—another rate cut in December is not guaranteed. Some officials have argued for patience due to limited fresh data during the shutdown, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller backed another cut earlier this week.
According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, prospects for a December cut are essentially a coin toss.
Bitcoin rebounds
Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) moved higher on Wednesday after a steep drop erased all of its 2025 gains. Risk appetite has been hit hard by renewed doubts surrounding the AI sector and the uncertain path for U.S. monetary policy.
Reuters reported that roughly $3.7 billion has exited U.S. Bitcoin-linked ETFs since Oct. 10, when fears tied to U.S.-China trade tensions rattled markets. Data cited from CoinGecko show that total cryptocurrency market capitalization has declined by about $1.2 trillion in the past six weeks.
Advanced Micro Devices stock price