Contrary to the broader consensus expecting oil prices to hover between $55 and $65 next year, analysts at Barclays are cautioning that Brent crude could instead break above the $85 mark. The bank outlined this view in a recent research note, arguing that markets may be underestimating the risks tied to supply disruptions.
Barclays’ outlook centers on the possibility of a sharp contraction in Russian oil exports. Analysts said the market currently places too much emphasis on demand-related pressures, while failing to properly factor in potential supply shocks—particularly those linked to sanctions or logistical bottlenecks affecting Russian shipments.
According to their assessment, a meaningful reduction in Russian output would erode global inventories at a rapid pace, potentially triggering a fast and pronounced spike in Brent prices.
While Barclays acknowledged uncertainty around both the probability and timing of such a scenario, the bank stressed that the risk is substantial enough for investors and policymakers to take seriously. A sustained move higher in crude prices could have broad implications, including renewed inflationary pressure.