The coming week will be shaped by a heavy slate of delayed U.S. economic data releases, a midweek Thanksgiving pause in trading, renewed attention on peace talks between the U.S. and Ukraine, and the U.K.’s closely watched Autumn Budget. Here are the key developments investors will be monitoring:
1. U.S. Retail Sales Take Center Stage
Market participants will be focused on Tuesday’s release of September retail sales, a report that carries extra weight after being postponed for more than a month due to the federal government shutdown.
Consumer spending represents roughly two-thirds of the U.S. economy, making this reading particularly important at a time when investors have been operating without fresh data. Economists expect sales to rise 0.4% month-over-month, easing from August’s 0.6% increase.
Any signs of resilient consumer activity—alongside the kickoff of holiday shopping with Black Friday—could help lift sentiment after recent weakness in equity markets. Even upbeat results from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) last week weren’t enough to calm concerns about whether massive AI-related investment can continue at its current pace.
2. Producer Price Index Finally Arrives
Another delayed indicator, the September Producer Price Index (PPI), will also be released this week. The PPI has served as a key gauge of how businesses are absorbing or passing on cost pressures tied to U.S. tariffs.
Economists expect a 0.3% monthly increase after August’s surprise 0.1% decline, which signaled squeezed margins as companies absorbed more of the tariff impact rather than raising prices.
Markets will be watching for clues on whether weakness in August reflected a broader cooling in domestic demand amid signs of a softening labor market.
3. Fed’s Beige Book Takes on Greater Importance
With limited data available, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book—a compilation of anecdotal evidence from the central bank’s regional districts—has become a more critical input ahead of December’s policy meeting.
The Fed cut rates by 25 bps in both September and October, and CME FedWatch shows traders see another reduction as possible, though Fed officials appear divided.
The prior Beige Book suggested a mostly stable economic backdrop but flagged early warning signs: rising layoffs, softer spending among lower- and middle-income households, and hints of broader cooling momentum.
4. Trump’s Ukraine Peace Plan in Focus
Oil traders will keep monitoring developments around peace negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine, which contributed to softer crude prices on Monday.
By 03:09 ET, Brent slipped 0.4% to $61.70, while WTI hovered near $57.81.
Negotiations continued over the weekend, with both sides agreeing to revise a peace proposal introduced by President Donald Trump — a plan critics argue is overly advantageous to Moscow. Trump had previously urged Ukraine to accept the agreement before Thanksgiving, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio later said the timeline was flexible.
Analysts at ING stressed the importance of these developments, writing: “Developments related to a potential peace agreement are important for the oil market, particularly amid significant uncertainty about the impact of recently imposed sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil.”
“Clearly, a peace deal increases the likelihood that sanctions will be lifted, or at least not enforced strictly.”
A breakthrough could release additional Russian energy supply into global markets, adding further pressure to crude prices.
5. U.K. Autumn Budget Set to Raise Taxes
In the U.K., investors are preparing for Wednesday’s Autumn Budget, which Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to use to raise taxes substantially in order to stabilize the country’s finances.
Britain has struggled with sluggish growth since the 2007–08 financial crisis. Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer have pledged to revive the economy after Labour returned to power last year.
To keep borrowing targets on track and avoid unsettling bond markets, Reeves is reportedly preparing tens of billions of pounds in tax hikes—her second major increase since taking office. Part of the additional revenue is expected to support higher welfare spending.