Oil prices edged lower in Asian trading on Thursday, pressured by fresh government data showing a far larger rise in U.S. crude inventories than anticipated. Progress on a U.S.-supported peace proposal for Ukraine also added downward pressure, raising the possibility that more Russian oil could re-enter global markets.
As of 21:19 ET (02:19 GMT), January Brent futures were down 0.25% at $62.84 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 0.4% to $58.40 a barrel.
The dip followed solid gains of more than 1% on Wednesday, when traders increased bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month—typically a supportive factor for energy markets.
U.S. Crude Surplus Surprises Markets — EIA
The latest weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed crude inventories rising by 2.8 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 21, far surpassing expectations for a minimal 55,000-barrel build.
Gasoline stocks climbed by 2.5 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels, suggesting uneven demand across fuel products.
ING analysts attributed the jump to shifting trade flows, noting: “The increase was driven by a 560k b/d week-on-week decline in crude exports, while imports were up 486k b/d.”
The unexpected surge in inventories tempered Wednesday’s upswing and reinforced worries that global supply growth could outpace demand into 2026. Both the EIA and other major forecasting bodies have flagged rising production and heavy stock levels as potential headwinds for prices next year.
Peace Negotiations Weigh on Market Sentiment
At the same time, geopolitical developments added another layer of pressure. The U.S. continues to push ahead with a peace plan aimed at ending the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signaled openness to advancing the Washington-backed framework.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is set to visit Moscow next week to discuss the proposal—an event that has raised speculation that a ceasefire or broader agreement could ease some of the restrictions placed on Russian energy exports.
Such a scenario would likely add supply to an already well-stocked market.
As ING analysts wrote, “A peace deal would likely remove much of the supply risk facing the market, potentially leading to the lifting of US sanctions on Russia. For today, though, market action is likely to be relatively muted due to the US Thanksgiving holiday.”
The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is also in focus. According to ING, “OPEC+ is set to meet this weekend. We believe the group will leave production unchanged. The fundamental outlook remains fairly similar to where it was at the group’s last meeting.”