Bank of America expects gold’s record-setting rally to continue into 2026, arguing that the same macroeconomic forces that propelled the metal higher through 2025 remain firmly in place. In its latest Year Ahead outlook, the bank notes that while gold is technically “overbought,” it is still “underinvested,” creating a backdrop where stretched valuations have yet to deter market support.
Strategists led by Michael Widmer emphasize that the policy mix driving bullion’s ascent—particularly unconventional U.S. economic measures—continues to offer substantial tailwinds. As long as these conditions endure, BofA sees a realistic pathway for gold to reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026, though it cautions that a more hawkish Federal Reserve remains the key downside risk. The bank now projects an average gold price of $4,538 per ounce next year.
BofA frames its gold outlook within a broader commodity environment characterized by tight supply, historically low inventories, and uneven global demand. Despite a challenging macro backdrop—especially in China—gold stands out among precious metals thanks to its persistent, well-defined supports.
Base metals, meanwhile, also face supply-side strains. Copper is expected to remain in deficit unless China’s consumption drops by more than 3%, with stronger demand from the U.S. and Europe helping to offset weakness. Aluminium is projected to follow a similar trajectory, prompting BofA to raise its 2026 price forecast to $3,125 per tonne as global output growth fails to keep pace with demand.
The outlook across the rest of the precious-metals complex is mixed. Silver demand is forecast to fall 11% in 2026 due to reduced orders from solar-panel manufacturers, yet supply deficits may still allow prices to average $60 per ounce. Platinum is also expected to remain in deficit, with an estimated average price of $1,825 per ounce. Palladium, by contrast, appears oversupplied, and BofA forecasts an average of $1,525 per ounce.
Looking ahead, BofA believes five major forces will shape metals markets in 2026: slowing Chinese demand, persistent supply tightness in key base metals, low exchange inventories, a possible resurgence in electrification and data-centre/AI-driven demand, and the ongoing influence of unconventional U.S. economic policies.