Corporate investment in artificial intelligence is accelerating at an extraordinary pace and could approach $3 trillion worldwide, with nearly half of that needing to be financed through public and private credit markets, according to a new outlook from Morgan Stanley.
In a research note, analysts led by Michael Zezas said they expect AI-focused capital expenditures to add roughly 0.4 percentage points to the forecast 1.8% U.S. GDP growth in 2026.
Companies across industries have been pouring increasing amounts of money into AI infrastructure and tools, driven by a race to adopt — and eventually profit from — the rapidly advancing technology.
At the same time, Morgan Stanley highlighted that “industrial companies tied to data center and onshoring buildouts, component suppliers/enablers across tech, AI adopters, and select financials positioned to intermediate the capex cycle all stand to benefit.”
The analysts also noted that stronger earnings across multiple sectors should reinforce their call that the S&P 500 will reach 7,800 by the end of 2026. For comparison, the index closed at 6,602.99 last Friday.
Their forecast comes as markets begin to question whether mega-cap tech firms can sustain the enormous — and often debt-driven — spending levels required for AI expansion. Morgan Stanley expects the surge in financing needs to sharply boost U.S. investment-grade bond issuance, potentially creating technical headwinds that may cap returns.
Growing concerns about the durability of AI-related spending have already cooled broader sentiment and even overshadowed Nvidia’s strong quarterly results last week.
The analysts warned that if the AI capex boom does not translate into meaningful productivity gains soon enough, leverage could rise faster than output, raising credit risks “that could weigh on markets.”
Still, they noted that starting conditions remain favorable: “The good news is that the starting point is strong: corporate balance sheets are healthy, with cash levels high, leverage low, and (despite the hype) private credit metrics more consistent with manageable risks than late-cycle excesses.”
They concluded by emphasizing the need for caution, stating: “Hence, we don’t see this risk as a 2026 story, but vigilance is a 2026 responsibility.”