A heavy slate of U.S. economic data will dominate attention this week as investors look to assess the health of the American economy before the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision. Expectations for a rate cut at next week’s meeting have been rising, but the upcoming indicators could offer a new—though delayed—window into inflation trends and the labor market. Meanwhile, Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) is set to report earnings, with its artificial intelligence strategy drawing close scrutiny.
1. ISM reports on deck
The Institute for Supply Management will release fresh snapshots of activity across the U.S. economy in the coming days, covering both manufacturing and services.
Monday’s ISM manufacturing PMI is projected at 49.0 for November, indicating continued contraction but at a slower pace than the prior month. The index tracking prices paid is expected to edge up to 59.5 from 58.0.
On Wednesday, the services PMI is forecast to ease slightly to 52.0 from 52.4 in October. The services sector is especially influential, accounting for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic output.
2. ADP employment data in focus
Markets will also parse the latest numbers on private payrolls from ADP. The report is expected to show around 19,000 jobs added in November, down from 42,000 in October.
Although the ADP reading is typically viewed as less comprehensive than the government’s nonfarm payrolls report, analysts have leaned more heavily on it due to the data blackout caused by the recent federal shutdown. As a result, this may be one of the few labor indicators the Fed receives before its upcoming policy meeting.
Additional labor updates are due Thursday, including job cuts data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas and the weekly unemployment claims report.
Due to the extended shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has said it cannot publish either its employment or consumer price reports for October.
3. Michigan consumer sentiment preview
On Friday, markets will get new results from the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey.
Early last month, the index dropped to its lowest level in nearly three-and-a-half years as households worried about the economic fallout from the shutdown.
The survey also highlighted the continuing “K-shaped” divide in the U.S. economy, with high-income earners benefitting from “continued strength” in the equity market, while lower-income households struggle. Recent market turbulence around tech valuations and surging AI-related spending may further sway sentiment.
The reading will also give insight into consumers at the start of the crucial holiday shopping season. Weekend data showed a strong spike in online spending for Black Friday despite broader economic caution. Figures on personal income and spending will also be released Friday.
4. Fed enters blackout window
The Federal Reserve began its pre-meeting blackout period on Saturday, restricting public commentary from policymakers before the December 9–10 gathering.
According to CME FedWatch, traders currently assign about an 88% probability to a quarter-point rate cut, with only 12% expecting the Fed to keep borrowing costs at the 3.75% to 4% range. With limited new data available during the shutdown, investors have been parsing every recent remark from Fed officials.
The Fed has already cut rates by 50 basis points across September and October, signaling a willingness to support a cooling labor market even as inflation pressures persist. In this environment, analysts at BofA suggest markets may see a “hawkish cut,” where the Fed lowers rates but maintains a firm tone on future inflation risks.
5. Salesforce earnings ahead
Salesforce will be a key earnings highlight this week. The cloud software leader expanded its collaborations with AI firms OpenAI and Anthropic during the quarter, integrating their technology into its Agentforce 360 platform to bring advanced AI tools to enterprises and regulated sectors.
Launched in October, Agentforce 360 aims to help organizations build, deploy, and oversee AI agents at scale.
Buoyed by optimism around these capabilities, Salesforce has said it expects revenue to top $60 billion by 2030. Still, the company faces a murky macroeconomic backdrop and inconsistent consumer spending. Its fiscal third-quarter revenue outlook—initially issued in September—fell short of Wall Street forecasts, raising concerns about how quickly clients will adopt AI agent technologies.