RBC Capital Markets is projecting that humanoid robots could become one of the most influential technologies of the next several decades, outlining a combined hardware-and-software market opportunity approaching $12 trillion by 2050.
The firm estimates a total addressable market of about $9 trillion for humanoid robot hardware alone, with an additional $3 trillion tied to software layers and service-based revenue models built on top of the physical systems.
“In the coming decades, humanoid robots are expected to revolutionize industries and fill labor shortages,” RBC analyst Tom Narayan wrote in a Wednesday research note. He said early adoption is likely to be strongest in industrial automation, warehousing, logistics, and agricultural operations.
While household use is expected to become the dominant long-term category, Narayan cautions that fully capable home robots may require more than two decades to reach maturity.
The report positions China as the primary geographic driver, representing roughly 61% of the anticipated hardware market. Narayan attributes this dominance to rapid adoption cycles, large-scale manufacturing capacity, and supportive government policies.
As production scales, unit costs could fall to around $25,000, paving the way for significant uptake across residential, industrial, and retail settings. Demand from households alone is projected to reach approximately $2.9 trillion, reflecting high adoption potential and the likelihood that families may eventually own multiple robots.
Narayan suggests the economic model for humanoid robots may resemble a blend of the automotive and smartphone industries. While the robots themselves would be sold as capital goods, he argues that long-tail software revenue — through app ecosystems and downloadable capabilities — could generate substantial ongoing profits. In an upside scenario, “software subscriptions and app sales could add ~$3T to the estimated ~$9T TAM,” forming a recurring, high-margin revenue layer similar to Apple’s services business.
The market landscape remains wide open, with “the humanoid robotics market is highly fragmented, with no clear leaders yet emerging,” according to Narayan. He points to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) , Boston Dynamics, Unitree, UBTECH, Figure AI and Apptronik as notable players, though each remains early in its development curve.
Chinese companies currently lead in hardware production scale and cost advantages, while U.S. and European firms hold stronger positions in software, advanced autonomy, and artificial intelligence capabilities.
RBC’s report also highlights broad investment themes spanning the entire robotics value chain — from sensors, actuators, and camera systems to operating platforms, interoperability standards, and consumer-grade robot design.
Although industrial and commercial use cases are expected to scale first, Narayan ultimately believes humanoid robots could surpass the size of the global automotive fleet, given their ability to operate frequently and perform a far wider range of tasks.