Copper prices may remain supported well into 2026, with supply constraints expected to linger after concerns over global availability pushed the metal to fresh record highs on Wednesday, according to analysts at BofA Securities.
Traders have been redirecting large volumes of copper toward the United States in an effort to reduce exposure to potential broad tariffs under the Trump administration. That shift has tightened supply in other regions, fueling additional price momentum.
Combined with expectations that a Federal Reserve rate cut in December could help spur economic activity, these dynamics have weighed on the U.S. dollar and driven copper higher. London Metal Exchange copper futures were last up 1.6% at $11,362.00 per metric ton on Wednesday, after touching an intraday record of $11,434.50.
In a research note, BofA analysts including Michael Widmer and Danica Averion said they expect the copper market to remain in deficit through 2026, barring a sharp contraction of more than 3% in Chinese demand.
China — the world’s biggest buyer of copper — is entering a slower phase after decades of rapid growth that helped propel prices from around $1,500 a ton 25 years ago to above $10,000 today.
Policy shifts, varying infrastructure cycles, and geopolitical uncertainties are all being cited as potential drags on future demand.
BofA forecasts that Chinese copper consumption will rise only 0.5% year-over-year in 2026, which would mark the weakest growth since 1988.
Still, resilience in other regions may help counterbalance China’s moderation. The analysts noted that demand from the U.S. and Europe could provide meaningful support.
Despite a “challenging” macroeconomic backdrop expected next year, the team said it remains “constructive” on the metal’s outlook. They project copper could average about $11,750 per ton in 2026.