Yardeni Research is standing firmly behind some of its boldest long-term market forecasts, reaffirming its call for gold to climb to $10,000 per ounce and for the S&P 500 to hit the 10,000 mark before the end of 2029.
Although the firm stresses that it does not assign a formal valuation framework to gold, it notes that its bullish tone emerged when the metal first broke above $2,000 an ounce last year—driven in part by heavy central-bank buying following the freezing of Russia’s reserves in 2022.
Earlier this year, as gold pushed beyond $3,000, Yardeni identified a rising price channel that supported “a reasonable price target” of $4,000 by the end of 2024. Now that prices are holding above that threshold, the firm expects another significant upward move to begin around mid-2026, with a target of $5,000 by year-end.
The long-range view remains the core of the forecast. Yardeni’s note reiterates: “We are still targeting a gold price of $10,000 by the end of 2029, when we expect the S&P 500 to trade at a record 10,000.”
It also highlights the unusual relationship between the two assets, stating: “Gold tends to be inversely correlated with the S&P 500 on a cyclical basis. But their trends on a long-term basis have been nearly identical.”
The commentary was released alongside Yardeni’s latest thoughts on Bitcoin, stablecoins, and the broader evolution of alternative assets.
The firm maintains a neutral stance on Bitcoin, saying it still does not have a reliable valuation framework: “because we don’t have any way to value it.”
Yardeni noted the competing narratives surrounding the cryptocurrency: “It has been widely called ‘digital gold.’ We’ve previously described bitcoin as ‘digital tulips’.”
Bitcoin rallied on Wednesday after news that Vanguard will now permit trading of cryptocurrency-focused ETFs and mutual funds—a reversal from the policy of its former CEO, who had insisted the manager would never offer Bitcoin-related products.
Yardeni also discusses the GENIUS Act, signed by President Donald Trump in July, which sets standards for stablecoins backed by liquid U.S. assets. The firm connects the legislation to earlier weakness in Bitcoin’s price, arguing that stablecoins “reduce demand for Bitcoin transactions.”
The note also references Cathie Wood’s updated price target for the token: her estimate has been reduced to $1.2 million for 2030 from the previous $1.5 million, as stablecoins are now “usurping” some of the use cases she once believed Bitcoin would dominate in emerging markets.