Crude prices slipped on Thursday, giving back part of Wednesday’s rally as traders assessed the implications of a U.S. seizure of a sanctioned Venezuelan tanker and evaluated the latest projections from the International Energy Agency.
By 08:00 ET (13:00 GMT), February Brent futures were down 1.1% at $61.53 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude declined 1.2% to $57.78.
U.S. Seizes Tanker Near Venezuela
Maritime authorities said the intercepted vessel — identified as the Skipper — was stopped near Venezuelan waters in a joint operation involving the U.S. Coast Guard, Homeland Security, and the FBI.
The action marks the first seizure of Venezuelan oil cargo under U.S. sanctions, which have been in place since 2019, and is the Trump administration’s first publicly known move against a tanker connected to Venezuela since ordering a significant military presence in the region.
The incident heightened concerns about instability in Venezuelan oil flows and introduced a renewed supply-risk premium into global oil markets.
Reuters, citing shipping data, reported that more than 30 sanctioned tankers linked to Venezuela could now face penalties following the seizure of the supertanker carrying the crude.
IEA Raises Demand Outlook, Cuts Supply Forecast
The International Energy Agency’s monthly report contributed further market tension. The agency boosted its 2025 global oil demand forecast, citing signs of improving macroeconomic conditions and stronger trade. It now expects consumption to rise by 830,000 barrels per day next year and has added another 90,000 b/d to its 2026 estimate, projecting year-over-year growth of 860,000 b/d.
On the supply side, however, the IEA trimmed its expectations. It now sees 2025 global supply growing by 3 million b/d — 100,000 b/d lower than previously forecast — and by 2.4 million b/d in 2026, a reduction of 20,000 b/d from earlier projections. That puts total production at 106.2 million b/d in 2025 and 108.6 million b/d in 2026.
Despite the cuts, the agency still expects supplies to outpace demand by 3.815 million b/d in 2026, though that surplus is now smaller than last month’s estimate.
U.S. Crude Inventories Fall
Weekly figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed commercial crude stockpiles falling by 1.812 million barrels — a larger-than-expected draw compared with the forecast 1.1 million-barrel decline. The data suggests supply remains somewhat tighter than anticipated.
Gasoline inventories rose in line with the seasonal slowdown following autumn’s elevated driving period. Distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, also increased.
Fed Rate Cut Adds to Market Dynamics
Adding another layer to commodity sentiment, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday delivered its third rate cut of the current cycle, lowering the federal funds target range to 3.5%–3.75%. The decision came with multiple dissents, highlighting divisions within the central bank.
The move pushed the U.S. dollar lower and reduced borrowing costs, factors that typically support demand for dollar-denominated commodities such as oil.