Analysts at JPMorgan argue that the global economy is moving more decisively toward an asset-driven model, away from one centred primarily on wages and income.
In a research note, the team led by Joyce Chang said that surging investment in artificial intelligence and rising household wealth sit at “the core” of this transition. As a result, they contend that “Traditional indicators are losing their explanatory power as the economic outlook is increasingly driven by asset prices, liquidity and financial conditions.”
Against this backdrop, the analysts identified a series of strategic themes that could shape markets and policy debates in 2026.
One of the most prominent trends, they said, will be a “widening gap” between “asset owners and wage earnings,” reinforcing the idea of a “K-shaped” economy in which financial outcomes diverge sharply across different groups.
They also expect the AI-driven boom in capital spending to persist, potentially lifting the S&P 500 above 8,000. At the same time, technological progress is likely to spread beyond AI into fields such as biotechnology, quantum computing and financial services.
These areas of innovation, JPMorgan noted, are increasingly joining commodities as “the new battlegrounds” in the escalating “tech war” between the United States and China.
On fiscal policy, the analysts said tax measures embedded in President Donald Trump’s flagship budget legislation passed last year should support both investment and personal incomes. However, they cautioned that job growth is likely to cool and that affordability pressures will remain largely unresolved.
Trade policy is another key uncertainty. The future of Trump’s tariffs remains unclear, with JPMorgan expecting a pivotal Supreme Court decision on the legality of the broad levies in the first half of 2026.
Politically, the U.S. backdrop will be shaped by “persistent paradoxes and deepening polarization, alongside uneven productivity gains,” setting the tone for the country’s midterm elections later in the year.
On the global stage, U.S. foreign policy is expected to continue shifting away from a multilateral, rules-based framework toward a more transactional and “burden-shifting” approach. According to the analysts, emerging markets could benefit most from this change, while Europe may face the greatest downside.
From an investment perspective, JPMorgan anticipates sustained demand for international diversification, alongside growing allocations to alternative assets beyond traditional stocks, bonds and cash.
Finally, the analysts highlighted what they called the “six Ds” — “deficits, deregulation, de-population, de-carbonization, de-globalization, and de-dollarization” — which they believe will influence the outlook for 2026 “and beyond.”