Shares of The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) fell 6% on Friday morning after the fertilizer maker released preliminary fourth-quarter 2025 sales figures that came in below expectations, reflecting a downturn in demand.
Mosaic said phosphate sales volumes were about 1.3 million tonnes in the quarter, while potash sales volumes totaled roughly 2.2 million tonnes. The weaker-than-anticipated outcome followed a sharp drop in North American fertilizer demand, which the company said declined “well beyond normal seasonal softness,” with phosphate market shipments estimated to be down about 20% year over year.
The company linked the softer performance to ongoing pressure on grower economics as well as an early start to winter weather that shortened the application window. Mosaic added that phosphate volumes were hit harder than potash, citing lower relative affordability.
Conditions were also challenging in Brazil, where tighter credit availability and increased competition from suppliers—driven by an influx of lower-analysis phosphate products from China—weighed on demand and margins. As a result, Mosaic Fertilizantes’ sales volumes fell “meaningfully short of expectations,” with full-year volumes flat year over year at around 9 million tonnes.
Despite the difficult fourth quarter, Mosaic struck a more upbeat tone for 2026, saying it expects growers to replace nutrients removed by last year’s strong harvest. The company also pointed to the potential boost from additional government support payments, which could help lift demand during the North American spring application season.
Phosphate markets are now described as “balanced to tight,” with prices responding positively to global demand since the start of the year. Mosaic also noted that China has announced broader and longer-lasting phosphate export restrictions, which are expected to remain in effect through at least the first half of the year.