JPMorgan has upgraded its gold price outlook, lifting its end-2026 forecast to $6,300 an ounce, on the view that demand from central banks and investors remains strong and durable despite the recent spike in volatility.
Gold and silver both saw sharp corrections late last week after surging rapidly to stretched levels, a move that was partly driven by a rebound in the U.S. dollar. Even so, JPMorgan’s analysts argue that the broader environment continues to support higher gold prices.
They said the “longer-term rally momentum will remain intact” and reiterated that they remain “firmly bullishly convicted in gold over the medium-term on the back of a clean, structural, continued diversification trend.”
A major factor behind the higher target is unexpectedly resilient buying from the official sector. Central banks purchased around 230 tonnes of gold in the fourth quarter alone, taking total buying for 2025 to roughly 863 tonnes, even with prices already above $4,000 an ounce. JPMorgan now forecasts about 800 tonnes of central bank demand in 2026, reflecting ongoing reserve diversification that it believes still has room to run.
Investor demand has also picked up pace. The bank highlighted growing ETF holdings, solid physical bar and coin purchases, and wider portfolio allocations into gold as protection against macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
“Gold remains a dynamic, multi-faceted portfolio hedge and investor demand has continued to come in stronger than our previous expectations,” analysts led by Gregory Shearer wrote. “To this end, we now forecast enough demand from central banks and investors this year to ultimately push gold prices to $6,300/oz by year end 2026.”
While acknowledging the rapid pace of the rally, the team dismissed concerns that prices are approaching unsustainable territory. Their analysis indicates that, even at elevated levels, demand remains well above the historical threshold required to keep the market tightening.
“While the air is getting thinner the higher we go in gold prices, we are not yet close to a place where the structural rally in gold is at risk of collapsing under its own weight,” they added.
On silver, however, JPMorgan struck a more cautious note following the metal’s sharp surge and subsequent pullback. Without central banks acting as consistent buyers on dips, the analysts said they remain “a bit apprehensive of a potentially deeper shakeout in silver vis-a-vis gold in the near-term.”
They noted that silver forecasts come with a “high” margin of error, but still see a higher average floor in the $75–$80 an ounce range, with prices “unlikely to fully relinquish its recent gains” after the metal’s rapid catch-up move relative to gold.
Over the longer term, JPMorgan expects elevated prices to alter market dynamics, having “consequences for silver’s supply/demand balance” that gradually reduce the deficit that has underpinned silver’s recent rally.