Oil prices were broadly stable on Monday as markets balanced the potential impact of renewed U.S.–Iran nuclear discussions against expectations that OPEC+ could move forward with planned supply increases.
By 09:10 GMT, Brent crude futures were down 18 cents, or 0.3%, at $67.52 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 17 cents to $62.72 per barrel.
Trading volumes were subdued, with markets in China, South Korea and Taiwan closed for Lunar New Year holidays, alongside the Presidents Day holiday in the United States.
Both oil benchmarks ended last week in negative territory, with Brent declining roughly 0.5% and WTI losing about 1%. The pullback followed remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting Washington could reach an agreement with Tehran within the next month.
A second round of talks between the U.S. and Iran is scheduled for Tuesday in Geneva, focusing on Tehran’s nuclear programme and efforts to avoid a fresh military escalation.
An Iranian diplomat was reported on Sunday as saying that Tehran is seeking a nuclear accord with Washington that would provide economic gains for both parties, including potential cooperation in energy and mining investments as well as aircraft purchases.
At the same time, U.S. officials told Reuters that Washington has deployed a second aircraft carrier to the region and is preparing contingency plans for a sustained military campaign should diplomacy fail. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have cautioned that any strike on Iranian soil could prompt retaliation against U.S. military bases.
“Increased Iranian tension could drive Brent to $80 a barrel. Fading tension would drop it back to $60 a barrel,” SEB analysts said in a note.
While geopolitical risks have lent some support to prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — collectively known as OPEC+ — are tempering bullish sentiment. According to a Reuters report, the group is leaning toward resuming output increases from April at its March 1 meeting, following a three-month pause in supply adjustments.