The United States created 187,000 jobs in July, according to the employment report (payroll) this Friday (4), released by the US Bureau of Statistics. The unemployment rate, in turn, stood at 3.5% in the last month, compared to 3.6% in June.
The number came below the expectations of economists, who predicted the creation of 200,000 jobs in the period.
Salaries, however, continued to rise, with an increase of 0.4% in July, compared to an expected increase of 0.3%.
The payroll data follows the employment figures from the ADP Research Institute, which highlighted on Wednesday (2) the persistent strength of the US job market.
The number of jobs in the private sector rose by 324,000 last month, beating all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists, who expected 190,000 jobs to be created in the period.
Wage growth continued to slow. Workers who stayed in their jobs saw a 6.2% pay rise in July compared to a year earlier – the slowest since November 2021.
Meanwhile, jobless claims remained close to year-low levels, underlining resilient demand for workers. Claims increased by 6,000 to reach 227,000 for the week ended July 29, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.
The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was 225,000 claims.
Economic data is closely followed by investors, who seek clues about the next steps of the US central bank in combating the highest inflation in 40 years.
After raising the US interest rate by 0.25 percentage points at the end of July, to a range of 5.25% and 5.50%, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ruled out a scenario of cutting interest rates until December, as expected by the market.
Powell also warned of still high inflation in the United States and left the door open for yet another increase in interest rates.
The payroll does little for the Fed. The number came in weaker than expected (187,000 out of 200,000 expected), but the revisions removed 49,000 jobs from June and May. The hotter-than-expected 4.4% gain in average hourly wages (annual basis) is also far from what the Fed wants and remains well above what would be consistent with the 2% inflation target.
Unemployment is back at 3.5%. The data-hungry Fed will still have the August jobs report ahead of the September decision, but the CME just saw a marginal rise in interest rate maintenance bets (82.5%, up from 82% yesterday).
NY futures fluctuated, but are already pointing higher as the dollar falls across the board in line with longer Treasury returns. With the lowest dust, the 2-year-old Note is already practically stable, at 4.88%.