U.S. equity futures moved modestly higher on Friday as investors prepared for key inflation and growth readings, while unease spread through private credit markets following a move by Blue Owl Capital (NYSE:OWL). Oil prices steadied amid ongoing geopolitical strains between Washington and Tehran.
Futures Edge Higher
By 03:09 ET, Dow futures were up 54 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures had added 14 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 57 points, or 0.2%.
Wall Street’s main indices closed lower in the previous session, pressured by Middle East tensions and a string of earnings reports that analysts at Vital Knowledge characterized as “underwhelming.” Retail giant Walmart (NYSE:WMT) warned that general merchandise inflation had accelerated sharply amid broad U.S. tariffs and issued cautious guidance for the year ahead, weighing on its shares.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) also slipped, dragging the S&P 500 lower.
On the policy front, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran appeared less dovish on rates. His remarks followed minutes from the Fed’s January meeting showing some officials cautioning that interest rate hikes could still be on the table in coming months. According to Vital Knowledge, this fuels speculation that borrowing costs may be “heading further away” from President Donald Trump’s preference for swift and aggressive cuts, potentially setting the stage for tensions between the White House and the central bank.
Private Credit Sector Under Scrutiny
Attention on Thursday centered on private credit after Blue Owl Capital announced changes to its investor redemption policy. Instead of allowing investors to withdraw a predetermined amount each quarter, the firm said it would decide how much capital to return on a quarterly basis.
The announcement sent Blue Owl shares lower, along with other major players such as Ares (NASDAQ:ARCC) and Blackstone (NYSE:BX). The reaction underscored concerns that vulnerabilities may be emerging within the opaque private credit industry, which has extended trillions of dollars in loans to businesses in recent years.
Market participants are also increasingly focused on lenders’ exposure to software companies, a segment facing pressure as investors weigh the disruptive impact of new artificial intelligence models.
In a post on social media, former PIMCO chief Mohamed El-Erian questioned whether the shift in Blue Owl’s redemption terms could mark a “canary-in-the-coalmine” moment reminiscent of early warning signs before the global financial crisis.
“There’s plenty to think about here, starting with the risks of an investing phenomenon in advanced (not developing) markets that has gone too far overall (short answer: yes), to the approaches being taken by specific firms (lots of differences, yet subject to the “market for lemons” risk),” El-Erian wrote.
Oil Prices Steady
Crude prices stabilized and remained on track for their first weekly gain in three weeks as tensions between the U.S. and Iran heightened supply concerns.
Brent crude was last trading broadly unchanged at $71.66 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.1% to $66.35. Both benchmarks hovered near their highest levels since early August and were poised to post weekly gains exceeding 6%.
Tensions escalated after Trump warned on Thursday that “really bad things” would happen if Iran failed to reach an agreement on its nuclear program within 10 to 15 days, raising the possibility of military action.
Any escalation involving Iran — a key OPEC producer — could disrupt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint for around 20% of global oil flows.
Inflation Data in Spotlight
Friday’s economic calendar is headlined by the release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.
The core PCE measure, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to rise 0.3% month on month in December, compared with 0.2% in November. On an annual basis, it is projected at 3.0%, up from 2.8%, according to estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Recent data showed that headline consumer price inflation increased more slowly than expected in January, bolstering hopes that the Fed could begin cutting rates as early as June. However, a stronger-than-anticipated labor market report earlier in the week had tempered those expectations, suggesting the central bank — which reduced rates several times in 2025 — may delay further easing until later in the year.
GDP Growth Expected to Slow
Investors are also awaiting an advance estimate of U.S. fourth-quarter GDP, which is expected to show a moderation in growth.
Economists forecast that the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the October–December period, down from 4.4% in the third quarter.
In the previous quarter, consumer spending remained a primary driver of growth, while a narrowing trade deficit — partly linked to President Trump’s broad tariff policies — also supported activity.
Despite the overall resilience, some analysts argue that the recovery has taken on a “K” shape. Higher-income households and large corporations have powered much of the expansion, while lower-income Americans continue to contend with elevated prices and subdued hiring conditions. Smaller businesses, meanwhile, face rising import costs and tighter labor supply amid ongoing immigration restrictions.