Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) continued to face selling pressure after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight, citing disappointing late-stage REDEFINE-4 trial results for its obesity treatment CagriSema, which indicated weaker competitiveness compared with Eli Lilly’s (NYSE:LLY) Zepbound.
The bank also reduced its price target to 250 Danish crowns from 350, while analysts at Deutsche Bank and Kepler Cheuvreux similarly lowered their ratings on the shares.
Novo Nordisk stock fell about 3.61% in Copenhagen trading, last changing hands at 243.60 DKK per share.
JPMorgan analyst Richard Vosser said the latest trial outcomes revealed a less compelling weight-loss profile compared with Lilly’s Zepbound in obesity treatment, along with a more modest glucose-lowering effect in patients with Type 2 diabetes, prompting revisions to the firm’s outlook.
Vosser noted that earlier forecasts had already assumed limited market penetration for CagriSema following previous trial data, but he now anticipates “a more challenging uptake for the product given inferiority to Zepbound.”
Consequently, JPMorgan reduced its CagriSema revenue projections by 40%–63% for the 2027–2030 period and lowered amycretin estimates by 1%–23% to account for weaker anticipated pricing. These revisions resulted in cuts of 2%–16% to group sales forecasts for 2026–2030 and reductions of 2%–17% in adjusted earnings per share expectations.
The analysts now estimate Novo’s earnings outlook for 2026–2030 to be between 5% and 21% below Bloomberg consensus forecasts, with projected EPS growth broadly aligned with other large-cap European pharmaceutical peers.
Vosser added that the CagriSema profile “seems hard to recover from inferiority result in REDEFINE 4,” despite weight-loss results of roughly 20%, which still exceed Wegovy but fall short of Zepbound’s 23%.
He maintained a more positive long-term view on amycretin, particularly its potential as an oral therapy, though he cautioned that investor sentiment will likely hinge on Phase III trial results expected between 2028 and 2029.
In a separate research note, Barclays adopted a more optimistic short-term stance on the rollout of Oral Wegovy, saying early prescription data are “encouraging.” The bank reported that Week 7 prescriptions reached roughly 48,000, representing a 12% week-on-week increase, while daily TRx figures showed “a strong ramp continues.”