U.S. stock futures edged higher on Monday as investors prepared for a week filled with potential market-moving developments. The conflict involving Iran continues to intensify, driving oil prices higher and stoking concerns about inflation. At the same time, a major developer conference hosted by Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) could shed light on the next phase of the artificial intelligence boom, while the Federal Reserve is set to headline a series of global central bank policy announcements.
Futures point higher
Futures tied to the main U.S. equity benchmarks rose early Monday as traders evaluated the ongoing U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran, which has now entered its third week.
At 04:19 ET, Dow futures were up 141 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures had advanced by 33 points, or 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 131 points, also about 0.5%.
Major Wall Street indexes ended last week lower as oil prices surged sharply amid concerns about supply disruptions. Iran has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage south of the country through which about one-fifth of global oil tanker traffic typically flows. The disruption has constrained energy supplies and raised concerns about the global economic outlook.
Although the U.S. has attempted to calm fears about supply shortages—including by easing some sanctions on Russian oil—crude prices have continued to rise. Higher oil costs have pushed up gasoline prices as well, a key component of inflation data and an issue closely watched by voters ahead of the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 2026.
Analysts at ING said in a note that U.S. strikes over the weekend on Kharg Island—through which most Iranian oil exports pass—have increased concerns about supply risks. However, they noted that the island’s energy infrastructure appears to have remained largely intact.
Trump presses allies to reopen Strait of Hormuz
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has called on seven countries to assist Washington in maintaining security in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime corridor responsible for transporting roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Trump did not indicate whether any of the countries had agreed to the request.
In comments to the Financial Times, Trump also suggested that members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization should play a role in reopening the strait, warning that “it will be a very bad for the future of NATO” if they decline to support the effort.
China was specifically mentioned by Trump, who said he could cancel a planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in April if Beijing fails to use its influence to help restore shipping through the route. According to The New York Times, tankers carrying oil to China have been allowed to pass through the strait, while others have reportedly come under attack.
Oil prices continue to climb
Oil prices moved higher on Monday in volatile trading as markets remained concerned about further supply disruptions from the Middle East. Crude had briefly fallen earlier in the session after Trump urged other countries—including China—to assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. officials have continued to say the conflict with Iran could end quickly, while Iranian leaders have maintained that the country remains prepared to defend itself.
Separately, the International Energy Agency said over the weekend that it will begin releasing 411.9 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves in an effort to counter potential supply shortages.
Brent crude futures—the global benchmark—rose 2.7% to $105.90 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 2.0% to $98.75 per barrel at 04:06 ET. Earlier in the session, oil prices had jumped as much as 3% before trimming gains and briefly trading flat.
Nvidia developer conference draws attention
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will return to the spotlight at the company’s annual developer conference starting Monday, as investors look for clues about the firm’s strategy to maintain its leadership in the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence sector.
Huang will take the stage at a time when Nvidia faces increasing competition in the AI chip market. Rivals such as Advanced Micro Devices and Intel are pushing into the space, while major technology firms—including Alphabet’s Google—are developing their own AI-focused processors.
Another challenge for Nvidia comes from the growing role of “inference” in artificial intelligence—where AI systems perform tasks for users in real time. These workloads can run on different types of chips than those Nvidia has traditionally produced, and some customers—including OpenAI and Meta Platforms—have indicated plans to design their own processors for these applications.
In December, Nvidia spent $17 billion to acquire Groq, a startup specializing in fast and cost-efficient inference computing. Last month, Huang said he would demonstrate how Groq’s technology could be integrated with Nvidia’s CUDA platform.
“[T]he big deliverable expected at this event is the unveiling by Nvidia of a new inference-focused chip that will contain IP obtained in the recent Groq acquihire deal,” analysts at Vital Knowledge wrote in a note.
Fed decision in focus
Beyond the technology sector, investors are preparing for a series of central bank policy announcements this week.
The Federal Reserve will be the main focus, with policymakers widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged when their two-day meeting concludes on Wednesday.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell—who is set to step down from his position in May—is also expected to use one of his final press conferences following a policy decision to provide updated remarks on the state of the U.S. labor market and inflation.
Recent employment data came in weaker than expected, highlighting potential fragility in the job market. At the same time, inflation risks may be increasing due to higher energy prices linked to the Iran conflict.
These developments present a difficult balancing act for the Fed: lowering rates could support employment but risk fueling inflation, while raising rates might help contain price pressures at the expense of the labor market.
Investors will be watching closely for any signals about how the central bank plans to navigate these competing pressures in the months ahead.