Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC) has updated its guidance for the first quarter of 2026, noting stronger-than-expected revenue trends but also highlighting rising jet fuel costs and operational challenges linked to Winter Storm Iona.
The airline holding company said it now expects an adjusted diluted loss per share between $0.32 and $0.44 for the quarter, remaining within the range it had previously projected. The update comes ahead of the company’s presentation at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference scheduled for March 17.
Revenue per available seat mile, adjusted to a 1,000-mile stage length, is now forecast to increase in the mid-teens percentage range compared with the same quarter last year. This represents an improvement from earlier expectations of more than 10 percent growth. The company attributed the stronger outlook to solid travel demand, easing competitive capacity pressures and improvements in its revenue management strategies.
Jet fuel prices have risen significantly since the company issued guidance in February. Frontier now expects average fuel prices of around $3.00 per gallon for the quarter, compared with a prior estimate of $2.50 per gallon. The higher fuel costs are expected to add roughly $45 million to $50 million in expenses during the period.
Operational performance was also affected by Winter Storm Iona, which struck on March 15–16 and caused widespread disruptions. The airline said residual effects are likely to continue as operations gradually return to normal.
As a result, Frontier now expects first-quarter capacity to decline by approximately 1 percent to 1.5 percent compared with the same period a year earlier.
The company said total liquidity at the end of March 2026 is projected to exceed $900 million, up from $874 million reported at the end of December 2025. Frontier also reaffirmed expectations for tax expenses between $3 million and $5 million and approximately 229 million diluted weighted-average shares outstanding.
Frontier added that it is currently reviewing its full-year 2026 guidance and plans to provide an updated outlook when it releases its first-quarter results.