Key Takeaways
- Gold sentiment indicators are nearing historical lows, levels that have previously marked market bottoms.
- Heavy outflows from gold ETFs suggest capitulation, while silver is showing similar volatility patterns.
- Energy markets remain in focus, with historical data suggesting strong long-term upside following oil spikes and backwardation.
Gold weakness may be signalling a turning point
Markets remain volatile as geopolitical tensions continue to drive sharp moves across commodities, particularly gold and silver.
In this week’s Markets in Motion, Bruce Campbell highlights a notable shift in gold sentiment, with multiple indicators approaching levels that have historically aligned with market bottoms.
Data tracking gold futures sentiment shows readings now comparable to previous pullbacks, including late 2024.
The gold miner bullish percent index is also nearing levels seen during prior lows, such as during the COVID selloff and more recent cyclical troughs. At the same time, gold ETF flows are showing signs of capitulation, with the SPDR Gold Shares ETF recording significant outflows in March — a signal that investors may be exiting positions amid uncertainty.
Silver is following a similar pattern, with renewed volatility and sharp sell-offs after earlier strength.
Meanwhile, attention is beginning to shift toward energy. Despite geopolitical drivers supporting oil prices, investor flows into energy ETFs have remained relatively muted.
However, historical data suggests that when oil enters backwardation alongside price spikes, energy equities have delivered consistent gains over longer timeframes.
While short-term performance can be choppy, the longer-term trend has been notably positive — pointing to a potential opportunity for investors watching the sector.
Watch the full video above or on YouTube, and get involved in the conversation by leaving your comments and engaging in the forums.
Join the discussion: Connect with other investors on your favorite stocks or explore the top-talked-about stocks on our Breakout Boards.