Brent crude prices could spike to as high as $200 per barrel — potentially pushing U.S. gasoline prices to roughly $7 per gallon — if the war involving Iran continues through the end of June and the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed to shipping, according to analysts at Macquarie.
Similar concerns were voiced by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who told participants at an energy conference in Cairo that supply disruptions and rising energy costs could drive oil prices beyond $200 per barrel. He described such forecasts as realistic rather than alarmist.
Egypt, which maintains strong relations with both the United States and Gulf nations, has condemned Iran’s attacks on Gulf Arab states and is actively backing diplomatic initiatives aimed at preventing a broader regional escalation.
Macquarie outlined two possible paths for the oil market. In the more probable scenario — which the bank assigns a 60% likelihood — hostilities ease in the near term, oil prices retreat relatively quickly from current levels around $108 per barrel, and the broader economic fallout remains limited.
However, in a second scenario that Macquarie places at a 40% probability, disruptions to supply prove far more persistent, creating consequences that strategists describe as potentially historic.
“With the global economy much less oil-intensive than 50 years ago, we would not be surprised if that would require historically high real prices (>$200) for a time,” strategists led by Peter Taylor wrote in the note.
The magnitude of the current disruption is already notable. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz largely halted, Macquarie estimates that roughly 13% of global oil production could be shut in by the end of March — a disruption larger than the peak losses seen during either of the oil crises of the 1970s or the first two Gulf Wars. In 2025, global oil consumption reached nearly 105 million barrels per day.
Strategic reserves held by members of the International Energy Agency — totaling more than 1.2 billion barrels — could help cushion the shock, though analysts caution that these reserves can only be released gradually. Meanwhile, some Asian countries are already experiencing physical shortages of diesel and jet fuel.
“If the Strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand,” the strategists wrote.
If oil were to reach $200 per barrel, the analysts say discussions would likely shift quickly toward the risk of a global recession, with economic growth slowing by roughly one percentage point compared with 2025. Central banks would face a stagflationary environment — characterized by weak growth and rising inflation — reminiscent of the 1970s.
In the United States, Macquarie believes the Federal Reserve could be forced to contend with near-zero or even negative job growth alongside accelerating prices.
Even so, the strategists believe a full global recession might narrowly be avoided. Governments could step in to offset rising energy costs through subsidies, as several countries have already begun to do. Japan and Italy, for example, have taken steps in that direction.
For now, Macquarie’s base-case outlook still assumes a relatively quick resolution. With approximately 15% of global oil supply at risk of being constrained indefinitely, the economic incentives to reach an agreement are significant.
“It is that reality that underpins our view that a deal must eventually be made,” the strategists said.