Futures tied to major U.S. indices traded with little direction on Friday, as investors monitored a delicate ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Continued Israeli strikes on Hezbollah-linked positions in Lebanon have added uncertainty ahead of potential weekend discussions between Washington and Tehran. Meanwhile, oil prices moved slightly higher and gold edged lower, with attention also turning to upcoming U.S. inflation data.
Futures show limited movement
U.S. equity futures were subdued in early trading, reflecting caution around geopolitical tensions, ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and the imminent release of inflation figures.
By 03:27 ET, Dow futures slipped 60 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures eased 4 points, or 0.15%. Nasdaq 100 futures were largely flat.
Wall Street had ended the previous session higher, supported by comments from Benjamin Netanyahu indicating that discussions with Lebanon could begin. Despite the announcement of a temporary ceasefire earlier in the week, Israeli operations against Iran-aligned Hezbollah targets have continued, including strikes reported on Friday.
Iran has suggested that ongoing Israeli military activity could jeopardize any planned negotiations with the U.S., particularly if attacks persist. There are also unresolved differences between Washington and Tehran regarding whether Lebanon falls under the scope of the current ceasefire agreement.
Even so, hopes for a longer-term easing of tensions have supported risk appetite. U.S. equities have now recorded seven consecutive sessions of gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average returning to positive territory for the year.
Outside of geopolitics, consumer discretionary stocks received a boost after Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) CEO Andy Jassy revealed that the company’s cloud-based artificial intelligence services are generating more than $15 billion in revenue.
Oil edges higher amid supply concerns
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained, with volumes still below 10% of normal levels despite the ceasefire, according to reports.
Iran has instructed vessels to remain within its territorial waters while transiting the strait, a key passage for global oil supplies. The disruption has significant implications, particularly for Asian economies reliant on crude imports and for Europe, which depends on gas flows from the Gulf region.
In addition, strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure have reduced oil production capacity by around 600,000 barrels per day and cut flows along the East-West Pipeline by roughly 700,000 barrels per day.
These factors have supported oil prices. Brent crude rose 1.4% to $97.24 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 1.4% to $99.25. Although the ceasefire has put oil on track for its steepest weekly drop since June 2025, prices remain elevated compared with pre-conflict levels.
Gold slips but remains on track for weekly gains
Gold prices declined slightly during European trading but were still set to post gains for the week.
Despite its status as a traditional safe-haven asset, gold has struggled during the Iran conflict. Rising oil prices have fueled inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer, which tends to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold.
Instead, investors have turned to the U.S. dollar, which has strengthened and made gold more expensive for international buyers. However, with renewed optimism around a potential ceasefire, the dollar has weakened over the past week.
“These levels clearly embed plenty of optimism, but another leg lower for USD is on the cards once, or if, a permanent peace deal is agreed and Strait of Hormuz flows resume,” analysts at ING said in a note.
Inflation data in focus
Markets are now awaiting the release of U.S. consumer price index data for March, which could shed light on the inflationary impact of recent energy price spikes.
Economists expect headline inflation to rise sharply compared to February, largely due to higher gasoline prices linked to the geopolitical situation. The national average price of gasoline has climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time in over three years, while diesel costs have also surged.
However, the data is likely to reflect only the immediate impact of rising oil prices. Core inflation, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is expected to show a more moderate increase.
According to ING analysts, this may lead the Federal Reserve to place less emphasis on headline inflation figures in the near term.
TSMC reports strong revenue growth
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM) reported robust revenue growth for the first quarter, driven by strong demand linked to artificial intelligence.
The world’s largest contract chipmaker, and a key supplier to companies such as Nvidia and Apple, posted a 45.2% year-on-year increase in March revenue to T$415.19 billion ($13.07 billion). Revenue also rose 30.7% compared to February.
For the quarter, total revenue reached T$1.13 trillion, slightly exceeding Bloomberg estimates of T$1.12 trillion and marking a significant increase from T$839.25 billion a year earlier.