Shares of Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK) climbed 3.3% on Friday after Mizuho analyst Nick Setyan upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral and raised the price target to $120 from $100.
The upgrade reflects expectations of stronger-than-anticipated same-store sales growth in the first quarter. “Our checks point to Q1 SSS growth upside, with drivers in place for comp momentum and restaurant-level margins ahead of current expectations as 2026 progresses,” Setyan commented.
The stock had closed at $97.55 on Thursday.
Setyan highlighted several factors likely to support comparable sales momentum, including increased marketing activity, broader value offerings, and initiatives to boost app usage, with a loyalty program set to launch in the second half of 2026. Additional tailwinds include improved operational throughput, favorable tax conditions, and the upcoming World Cup scheduled from June 11 to July 19.
The analyst also expects stronger revenue performance alongside supply chain efficiencies to support margin expansion, projecting high-teens annual EBITDA growth in both 2026 and 2027. This compares with a compound annual growth rate of 16% between 2019 and 2024, versus low-20% growth for peers.
Mizuho’s $120 price target is based on a valuation of 17 times projected 2027 EBITDA, representing a 30% discount to peers compared with an average discount of 45% over the past five years. The smaller discount reflects the view that Shake Shack’s growth outlook warrants a closer alignment with the peer group’s average multiple of 23.5x.