U.S. equity futures edged higher on Tuesday, while oil prices declined, as investors reacted to signs of potential progress in efforts to end the Iran conflict. However, a continued U.S. blockade of Iranian ports into a second day has added tension, further disrupting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, a wave of major U.S. bank earnings is set to dominate market attention, and luxury group LVMH (EU:MC) highlighted the conflict’s impact on sales.
Futures Tick Higher
U.S. stock futures moved modestly upward, supported by optimism around ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran aimed at securing a lasting ceasefire. Investors are also preparing for a busy earnings schedule from major financial institutions.
As of 03:17 ET, Dow futures rose by 51 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures gained 10 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 72 points, or 0.3%.
Wall Street’s main indices had already posted gains in the previous session, as initial disappointment over the lack of a breakthrough in weekend talks between the U.S. and Iran faded. U.S. President Donald Trump said the White House had been contacted by Iranian officials and expressed a desire to “make a deal,” adding that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.
“[W]hile the meeting was certainly disappointing, it was hardly catastrophic, and if one looks closely, Trump seems to be pivoting aggressively away from kinetic escalation,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said.
They added that their view of the situation is “relatively sanguine,” though the “economic fallout from what’s already occurred” could be “significant.”
U.S. Blockade Continues to Disrupt Shipping
At the same time, the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, which began Monday, has tightened constraints on oil flows already impacted by the conflict.
Tehran has condemned the move as an “act of piracy,” with reports suggesting around 15 U.S. warships are involved. British maritime authorities said access has been restricted for vessels operating near Iranian ports and across key waterways in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and parts of the Arabian Sea.
Despite these tensions, diplomatic efforts appear to be gaining traction. According to Reuters, talks between the U.S. and Iran have continued, with some progress toward a permanent ceasefire. Pakistan has offered to host further negotiations following the initial round held in Islamabad.
Elsewhere, Israel and Lebanon are set to begin direct peace talks in Washington, with ongoing strikes involving Iran-aligned Hezbollah forces remaining a key obstacle.
Oil Prices Ease Below $100
The prospect of diplomatic progress helped push oil prices lower, with Brent crude falling 1.5% to $97.88 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate declining 3.4% to $95.78.
However, the outlook remains uncertain. The OPEC reduced its forecast for global oil demand in the second quarter by 500,000 barrels per day in its first assessment of the Iran conflict’s impact.
Even so, the group left its full-year outlook unchanged, indicating expectations that demand could recover later in 2026.
Bank Earnings Take Centre Stage
Attention is now shifting to corporate earnings, with several major U.S. banks set to report results.
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and Citigroup (NYSE:C) are due to release quarterly figures before the U.S. market opens, followed by Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) on Wednesday.
Analysts expect trading revenues and investment banking fees to support results, even as uncertainty tied to the Iran conflict persists. Earlier this month, Jamie Dimon warned that the conflict could trigger commodity price shocks, potentially sustaining inflation and pushing interest rates higher than currently anticipated.
On Monday, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reported a 19% increase in first-quarter profit, driven by strong performance in trading and investment banking.
LVMH Highlights Impact of Iran Conflict
In Europe, shares of LVMH (EU:MC) fell in early trading after the company said the Middle East conflict had reduced group sales by at least 1%, dampening expectations for a continued recovery in the luxury sector.
The group, which owns brands such as Louis Vuitton and Bulgari, reported a 1% increase in quarterly sales, missing estimates for 1.5% growth, according to Visible Alpha data cited by Reuters.
Finance chief Cécile Cabanis said that “[w]hat we see today is still that demand is very much down” following disruptions to shopping activity in the Middle East after the outbreak of the Iran conflict.
Rival Kering (EU:KER), owner of Gucci, is scheduled to report results after the close of European markets later in the day.