U.S. equity futures moved higher on Thursday as investors tracked developments around a possible new round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Efforts continue to extend a temporary ceasefire and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices edged up but remained below the $100 per barrel mark. Meanwhile, China reported stronger-than-expected economic growth for the first quarter, and semiconductor giant TSMC (NYSE:TSM) posted record profits.
Futures edge up
Futures tied to major U.S. indices pointed to a firmer open, supported by optimism around potential progress toward a lasting ceasefire in the Middle East and encouraging early earnings commentary.
By 03:38 ET, Dow futures were up 56 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures had gained 15 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had advanced 114 points, or 0.4%. Outside the U.S., Japan’s Nikkei reached a new record high, while European equities also traded modestly higher.
In the previous session, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit fresh record levels, driven largely by expectations that the Iran conflict could be nearing a resolution.
Executives from major Wall Street banks also signaled that the U.S. economy remains relatively resilient despite the energy shock linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil flows.
“[W]hile it’s still early in the [calendar first-quarter] reporting season, and the full fallout from the Iran war hasn’t been felt yet in the economy, we’ve been positively surprised by corporate results thus far, especially the ‘status quo’ messaging from bank CEOs,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note.
More earnings are due later in the day, with PepsiCo set to report before the opening bell and Netflix scheduled to release results after the close.
Focus on Iran talks
Analysts noted that expectations for an extension of the current truce between the U.S. and Iran have become widely accepted among investors, to the point that further headlines on negotiations may have less impact on market sentiment.
Although no formal agreement has been reached, reports suggest that diplomatic efforts are advancing.
Mediators continue working toward a lasting ceasefire as the current two-week truce approaches its expiration. According to the Wall Street Journal, both sides have agreed in principle to resume discussions after initial talks in Pakistan failed to produce an immediate breakthrough, though no timing or location has been confirmed.
The WSJ added that Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead the U.S. delegation in future negotiations.
President Donald Trump has also indicated that talks between Israel and Lebanon are set to take place, with the Financial Times reporting that a ceasefire between the two sides could be reached “soon.”
Oil remains below $100
Tensions persist, particularly around the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. A senior Iranian military official has warned against continuing the blockade, while U.S. Central Command maintains that no Iranian-linked vessels have managed to bypass it.
Other reports suggested that some ships and tankers have successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Reuters also indicated that Iran may allow vessels to pass through the Omani side of the strait without interference as part of a broader agreement.
Against this backdrop, oil prices rose slightly but remained under $100 per barrel, still well above pre-conflict levels. However, for the week, crude prices have been under pressure, with gains capped by hopes of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
China growth beats expectations
China’s economy expanded more than forecast in the first quarter of 2026, supported by strong exports and a recovery in domestic demand.
Gross domestic product rose 5% year on year, matching the upper end of the government’s annual target.
The data provided some support for expectations around oil demand in the world’s largest crude importer, although other indicators suggested that economic momentum slowed toward the end of the quarter.
Uncertainty remains over China’s outlook, particularly given its reliance on crude imports from Iran.
TSMC posts record profit
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, benefiting from continued strong demand linked to artificial intelligence.
The company posted net profit of T$572.48 billion ($18.15 billion) for the three months to March 31, exceeding Bloomberg estimates of T$542.38 billion and marking a 58.3% increase compared with the same period last year.
Revenue rose 35% to T$1.134 trillion during the quarter.
TSMC cautioned that ongoing disruptions to chemical and energy supplies due to the Middle East conflict could weigh on profitability, although it does not expect a significant near-term impact.