A preliminary peace agreement between the United States and Iran has emerged as the dominant market story at the start of the week, with investors assessing the implications for energy markets, inflation and central bank policy. Attention is also focused on a series of interest-rate decisions from major central banks, the post-IPO performance of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), and developments surrounding AI company Anthropic (NASDAQ:ANTP).
1. U.S. and Iran Reach Preliminary Peace Agreement
The United States and Iran have announced an interim agreement aimed at ending a conflict that has lasted for more than three months and weighed heavily on the global economy.
Pakistan, which has acted as a mediator during the negotiations, said a memorandum of understanding is expected to be signed in Switzerland on Friday.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that both countries have “declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts.” He added that the arrangement also covers Lebanon.
Questions over the agreement’s durability emerged after Israel launched strikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah targets in Lebanon over the weekend, prompting criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from U.S. President Donald Trump.
Although neither Washington nor Tehran has released the full details of the accord, Iran has indicated that implementation will only begin after the formal signing ceremony.
Trump said the deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments moved before the conflict erupted in late February.
In a social media post, he said the waterway would reopen on Friday following mine-clearing operations and added that the long-standing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports would also be lifted.
2. Federal Reserve Decision Takes Centre Stage
Global equity markets advanced while oil prices fell after news of the agreement, as investors reassessed the outlook for inflation and economic growth.
However, analysts remain cautious about how quickly energy markets can normalise.
ING analysts noted that “[R]estarting infrastructure and logistics flows could take time, while some shipping operators may remain cautious about returning to the Strait in the near term. Meanwhile, inventories and strategic stockpiles will need to be rebuilt after recent disruptions, which should keep prices supported even as flows gradually resume.”
The Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday will be closely watched to determine whether easing geopolitical tensions alter the central bank’s outlook.
Markets broadly expect rates to remain unchanged this week, although expectations for interest-rate cuts have faded significantly following stronger inflation data.
Analysts at Vital Knowledge said “[I]t’s still very likely that the easing bias will be removed from the FOMC statement.”
However, they believe new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh “could put his thumb on the scale during the [post-decision] press conference and tip things in a dovish direction by reiterating” comments suggesting that rate reductions could become appropriate if tensions with Iran continue to ease.
3. Bank of Japan Faces Key Policy Test
Beyond the Federal Reserve, investors will monitor a busy calendar of central bank decisions around the world.
The Bank of Japan is expected to face a difficult balancing act as policymakers contend with inflationary pressures, yen weakness and growing political scrutiny.
Markets are widely anticipating an increase in interest rates to the highest level in more than three decades, as officials attempt to contain price growth while avoiding damage to Japan’s economic recovery.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, maintaining a cautious approach after recent comments from Governor Andrew Bailey that policymakers had “already tightened policy considerably” by abandoning plans for a possible rate cut in 2026.
Other central banks due to announce policy decisions this week include the Swiss National Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank and the Reserve Bank of Australia.
4. SpaceX Begins Its First Full Week as a Public Company
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) remains one of the market’s biggest talking points after delivering the largest IPO in history last week.
The company’s shares continued to rise in premarket trading on Monday after a strong debut that pushed its valuation above $2 trillion, making it one of the most valuable publicly traded companies in the United States.
On Sunday, Elon Musk suggested that SpaceX could eventually generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. By comparison, the company reported revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025.
Retail investors played a significant role in the stock’s first day of trading, purchasing approximately $117.6 million worth of shares, according to Reuters, citing data from Vanda Research.
Some analysts have cautioned that the stock could experience elevated volatility due to its limited public float and rapidly expanding valuation.
5. Anthropic Executives Set for White House Discussions
The success of SpaceX’s flotation may offer clues about investor demand for future large-scale technology listings, including a potential offering from Anthropic (NASDAQ:ANTP).
According to Axios, senior technical employees from the artificial intelligence company are expected to meet White House officials this week to address a dispute that has resulted in one of Anthropic’s most advanced AI models being taken offline.
The report cited a source close to the company who said discussions between Anthropic and White House representatives began after the Trump administration contacted the company last week.
The administration reportedly instructed Anthropic to block access to its Mythos 5 and Fable 5 models for all foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States.
Anthropic subsequently announced plans to disable the models globally, even after introducing cybersecurity safeguards for Fable. The company has previously highlighted concerns about the potential misuse of Mythos’s advanced capabilities.
The outcome of these discussions may have implications for both Anthropic’s future IPO plans and the broader regulatory environment surrounding advanced artificial intelligence systems.