Tesla Deliveries Seen Beating Market Expectations
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) could report second-quarter vehicle deliveries above current Wall Street forecasts, according to Goldman Sachs, which has increased its projection ahead of the company’s upcoming delivery update.
Analyst Mark Delaney said the bank now expects Tesla to deliver 420,000 vehicles during the second quarter of 2026, up from its previous estimate of 405,000 units. The revised forecast exceeds the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of approximately 400,000 vehicles.
“We believe that Tesla’s 2Q26 vehicle deliveries are likely tracking ahead of consensus,” Delaney wrote in a note to clients.
International Markets Drive Momentum
Goldman Sachs based its more optimistic outlook on recent sales and registration data from several of Tesla’s key global markets, including China, Europe and the United States.
The bank said current monthly and weekly indicators suggest the electric vehicle maker is performing better than many investors had anticipated heading into the quarter-end reporting period.
Europe Emerges as a Standout Performer
Europe was highlighted as one of Tesla’s strongest regions during the quarter.
According to Goldman Sachs, vehicle registration figures through May indicated year-over-year growth of roughly 85% to 90%, while daily registration data reported by several countries pointed to a solid start to June.
The bank noted that part of the increase reflects easier comparisons, as Tesla’s European deliveries declined 29% year over year during the second quarter of 2025.
China and Asia-Pacific Remain Supportive
In China, data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) through May showed deliveries increasing at a high single-digit annual rate.
Goldman also pointed to encouraging trends across other Asia-Pacific markets, including South Korea and Australia, where Tesla recorded strong gains both compared with the previous year and the prior quarter.
The results suggest continued demand strength across several of the company’s most important international markets.
U.S. Market Lags Global Trends
The United States was the only major region identified as a relative weakness in Goldman Sachs’ analysis.
Using data from Motor Intelligence, the bank estimated that Tesla deliveries in the U.S. through May were down by a mid-teens percentage compared with the same period last year.
Despite softer domestic performance, stronger international results appear to be offsetting the decline.
China Remains Tesla’s Largest Market
Goldman estimates that China accounted for approximately 38% of Tesla’s total deliveries in 2025, making it the company’s largest market.
The United States represented a mid-30% share of deliveries, while Europe contributed roughly 15%.
Given the strong trends in China and Europe, Goldman believes Tesla is well positioned to exceed current market expectations when it releases its second-quarter delivery figures.