Goldman Sachs has reduced its oil price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 after President Trump announced an interim agreement that would end the U.S. blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal signing expected on Friday.
The investment bank now expects oil exports from the Persian Gulf to return to pre-conflict levels by the end of July, bringing forward its previous assumption of a recovery by the end of August.
As a result, Goldman lowered its forecast for Brent crude in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $80 per barrel from $90 previously. Its average Brent forecast for 2027 was cut to $75 from $80. The bank also reduced its projections for WTI, now expecting prices to average $75 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $70 in 2027.
According to Goldman, bringing supply normalization forward by one month lowers the fair value estimate for crude oil by roughly $10 per barrel for late 2026 and around $5 per barrel for 2027.
Strategists led by Daan Struyven said the outlook for supply recovery carries “two-sided” risks. On the positive side, they noted that Gulf oil flows have already recovered to an estimated 11 million barrels per day, while a return to pre-war export levels would require Hormuz traffic to increase by only 12 million barrels per day to reach about 70% of previous volumes.
The analysts also pointed to the possibility that Saudi Arabia and the UAE could respond more aggressively to low OECD commercial inventories, while Iranian production could increase further if sanctions are eased.
However, Goldman warned that renewed conflict in the region or attacks on oil tankers “might keep shippers risk-averse,” while mine-clearing operations could prove lengthy. The bank also highlighted the possibility that Iran could seek to close the Strait again if wider nuclear negotiations fail.
Despite forecasting a global oil surplus of 3.2 million barrels per day in 2027, Goldman expects Brent and WTI to remain close to their long-term equilibrium levels of $75 and $70 respectively. The bank cited limited capacity for inventory accumulation following significant stock drawdowns during the first half of the year, as well as a structural trend of strategic stockpiling that could exceed 1 million barrels per day next year.
“Some security premium compensating for disruption risk is likely to keep a floor under prices,” the strategists wrote.
Goldman added that the balance of risks to its oil outlook remains skewed to the upside. In a scenario where disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist through 2027, Brent prices could exceed $130 per barrel in late 2026 and average $105 the following year.
Conversely, if exports recover more quickly than expected and are accompanied by weaker demand and stronger supply growth, Brent could average just below $70 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and fall below $60 in 2027.