Bernstein has updated its outlook for the copper market, forecasting an average price of $12,419 per metric ton in 2026. The research firm expects copper to average $11,750 per ton during the second half of the year, a projection that sits slightly below the current market consensus of $12,515 per ton.
Supply Deficits Expected Later This Decade
Looking further ahead, Bernstein forecasts copper prices will average around $10,700 per metric ton by 2030 as structural supply deficits begin to emerge toward the end of the decade. The firm believes tightening market fundamentals will increasingly influence long-term pricing.
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors Shape Outlook
According to Bernstein, copper prices continue to be influenced by a combination of macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical developments and underlying supply-demand dynamics.
The prolonged conflict in the Middle East has contributed to higher energy costs and weaker industrial sentiment, while a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a more hawkish monetary policy have created additional pressure across commodity markets.
Tight Physical Market Continues to Support Prices
Despite these broader headwinds, Bernstein noted that several reductions in mine production guidance and continued inventory stockpiling in the United States have tightened conditions in the physical copper market.
The firm said its latest forecast reflects the balance between short-term macroeconomic challenges, including interest rate expectations and currency strength, and increasingly constrained physical copper supply.