Key takeaways
- Eli Lilly’s second-quarter revenue surged 48 per cent to US$22.97 billion, beating Wall Street expectations by more than US$2 billion.
- Mounjaro and Zepbound generated a combined US$14.87 billion, accounting for nearly 65 per cent of quarterly revenue.
- Lilly raised its 2026 revenue outlook to between US$85 billion and US$87 billion as injectable GLP-1 demand remained strong.
- Novo Nordisk also improved its full-year outlook, but its U.S.-listed shares fell 6 per cent after Wegovy pill sales narrowly missed expectations.
- Lilly shares jumped as much as 7 per cent Wednesday, widening the companies’ stock-market divergence.
Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) shares climbed Wednesday after booming demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound propelled the drugmaker past second-quarter estimates and strengthened its lead over Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO).
Lilly stock jumped as much as 7 per cent following the results and remained more than 4 per cent higher during afternoon trading. Novo’s American depositary receipts, meanwhile, recovered modestly after falling 6 per cent Tuesday despite the Danish company raising its own outlook.
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The opposing reactions showed that investors are no longer treating the two dominant obesity-drug manufacturers as interchangeable. Lilly’s injectable medicines continue to deliver rapid volume growth, while Novo is relying more heavily on its oral Wegovy launch to regain U.S. momentum.
Mounjaro and Zepbound crush expectations
Lilly reported quarterly revenue of US$22.97 billion, an increase of 48 per cent from US$15.56 billion one year earlier. Wall Street had expected approximately US$20.7 billion.
Adjusted earnings increased 33 per cent to US$8.38 per share, comfortably exceeding the US$6.01 consensus estimate. Reported net income rose 25 per cent to US$7.10 billion, or US$7.94 per diluted share.
The result was overwhelmingly driven by tirzepatide, marketed as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity in the United States.
Mounjaro revenue climbed 91 per cent to US$9.94 billion, compared with analyst expectations of approximately US$8.9 billion. International Mounjaro sales increased 172 per cent to US$5.2 billion, overtaking U.S. revenue of US$4.8 billion.
Zepbound generated US$4.93 billion, an increase of 46 per cent and above the approximately US$4.73 billion analysts expected.
Together, the two products produced US$14.87 billion in sales and represented 64.7 per cent of Lilly’s total revenue. In the first quarter, the same medicines generated approximately US$12.9 billion, meaning combined sales increased by roughly 16 per cent sequentially.
“The general consensus in the community is that tirzepatide is the better product,” BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman told Reuters.
Injectables retain their advantage
The strong quarter challenged earlier expectations that patients would quickly shift from injectable GLP-1 medicines to recently introduced pills.
Lilly said injectable treatments still account for approximately three out of every four new GLP-1 patient starts. Within the U.S. Medicare obesity-drug pilot launched in July, around 80 per cent of participating patients chose an injectable medicine.
That preference supported Zepbound and Mounjaro even after oral competitors entered the market.
Lilly’s once-daily Foundayo pill generated US$98 million during its first full quarter, slightly below the US$105.6 million analysts expected. However, prescriptions during the final week of July were approximately double their level one month earlier.
Foundayo is under regulatory review in more than 40 markets, with broader international launches expected during 2027.
Novo’s Wegovy pill is considerably further into its rollout. Quarterly sales reached 3.22 billion Danish kroner, or approximately US$497 million, increasing almost 43 per cent sequentially but narrowly missing the 3.3 billion kroner consensus estimate.
The pill has exceeded five million cumulative U.S. prescriptions since launching in January. Investors nevertheless wanted a larger sales beat, particularly given the importance of the product to Novo’s attempted comeback.
Lilly raises revenue outlook again
Lilly increased its full-year revenue forecast to between US$85 billion and US$87 billion, up from its previous range of US$82 billion to US$85 billion.
The company said strong underlying growth added US$2.78 to the midpoint of its non-GAAP earnings outlook. However, US$3.03 per share of acquired research-and-development charges more than offset that improvement.
As a result, Lilly now expects adjusted earnings of US$35.50 to US$36.50 per share, compared with its previous range of US$35.50 to US$37.00. Wall Street’s estimate remains lower at approximately US$34.20.
The distinction is important: Lilly raised its underlying operating expectations, but acquisition-related charges reduced the top of its published earnings range.
Revenue growth also came despite falling prices. Worldwide volume increased 60 per cent, while realized prices declined 13 per cent. U.S. revenue rose 33 per cent to US$14.4 billion, with underlying domestic pricing down approximately 9 per cent after excluding rebate adjustments.
Improved manufacturing costs and a favourable product mix helped non-GAAP gross margin expand to 86.3 per cent.
Novo improves guidance but still faces a decline
Novo Nordisk reported adjusted second-quarter sales of 78.49 billion Danish kroner, representing constant-currency growth of 7 per cent.
Adjusted operating profit climbed 11 per cent to 33.39 billion kroner, well above the company-compiled consensus estimate of 28.74 billion kroner.
Novo now expects both adjusted sales and operating profit to range from flat to a decline of 6 per cent at constant exchange rates during 2026. Its previous forecast called for declines of between 4 and 12 per cent.
The improved outlook was driven by higher expectations for GLP-1 sales. Even so, Novo is still forecasting that its annual results could contract while Lilly expects substantial growth.
Novo’s diabetes and obesity portfolio generated approximately US$9.16 billion during the quarter, compared with US$14.87 billion from Lilly’s two leading GLP-1 medicines.
Investor concerns were compounded by trial data showing that CagriSema matched tirzepatide for weight loss among patients with Type 2 diabetes but failed to demonstrate superior blood-sugar control.
Pricing and pipeline remain the next tests
Both companies must continue balancing rising treatment volumes against lower prices.
A new Medicare program offers obesity medicines for a monthly co-pay of US$50, reducing the pricing advantage initially enjoyed by oral Wegovy. Wider coverage could bring millions of new patients into the market, but greater discounts and government negotiation may limit revenue per prescription.
The next competitive battle will increasingly involve pipeline depth.
Lilly expects to submit retatrutide, its next-generation injectable obesity treatment, for U.S. approval during the first quarter of 2027. Novo is attempting to restore confidence in CagriSema while expanding Wegovy into additional doses, formats and markets.
The global obesity-drug market generated approximately US$66 billion in 2025, according to IQVIA. Analysts expect annual U.S. sales alone to exceed US$100 billion by 2030.
Lilly’s quarter suggests that injectable medicines will remain central to that opportunity even as pills expand the overall market. For investors, the more immediate question is whether Novo can convert its early oral lead into enough revenue to slow Lilly’s accelerating commercial advantage.