Citi has increased its price forecasts for corn, soybeans and wheat, identifying the strengthening Super El Niño as its highest-conviction agricultural market risk heading into late 2026 and early 2027.
The bank’s revised outlook reflects growing concern that increasingly severe weather conditions could disrupt agricultural production across several important growing regions, tightening supplies and supporting higher crop prices.
NOAA Forecast Points to Exceptionally Strong El Niño
Citi’s assessment follows NOAA’s August 2026 update, which assigns a probability of more than 90% to a very strong El Niño event.
The agency also estimates a 69% probability that conditions during October through December will surpass the strength of every El Niño episode recorded since 1950.
Against this backdrop, Citi believes agricultural markets may not yet fully reflect the potential production losses associated with an unusually powerful weather event.
Citi Lifts Corn, Soybean and Wheat Forecasts
Citi raised its three-month corn price target to $5.40 per bushel, while increasing its 12-month forecast to $5.90 per bushel.
For soybeans, the bank lifted its three-month target to $12.75 per bushel after its previous forecast was reached. Its 12-month soybean target now stands at $13.25 per bushel.
Wheat forecasts were also revised higher, with Citi setting a three-month target of $7.25 per bushel and a 12-month forecast of $7.75 per bushel.
The bank said its new Production-at-Risk framework indicates that current commodity prices account for only part of the potential threat to global agricultural output.
Palm Oil and Coffee Among Commodities Most Exposed
Citi identified palm oil, robusta coffee, rice, sugar, cocoa and Australian wheat as some of the agricultural commodities facing the greatest weather-related exposure.
Geographically, the most significant risks are concentrated across Australia, India, Southeast Asia and parts of Brazil, where an unusually strong El Niño could disrupt rainfall patterns and reduce crop yields.
The bank said the bullish outlook for agricultural commodities is also being reinforced by several other factors. These include declining yield expectations, strong export demand, disruptions around the Black Sea, higher fertiliser and energy costs and increasing global demand for biofuels.
El Niño Could Boost Soybean Demand Through Palm Oil Disruption
One potentially important consequence of a powerful El Niño is the threat to palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Lower palm oil output could increase demand for soybean oil as an alternative vegetable oil. In turn, greater soybean oil consumption could support additional soybean crushing and strengthen demand for the underlying crop.
This dynamic adds another potential source of upward pressure to Citi’s soybean outlook beyond the direct effect of weather conditions on harvests.
Wheat Faces Combined Weather and Geopolitical Risks
Citi considers wheat particularly vulnerable because the market is simultaneously exposed to adverse weather and geopolitical disruption.
Hot and dry conditions across Europe have already resulted in reductions to wheat production estimates, while uncertainty surrounding Black Sea supplies remains another potential source of volatility.
With El Niño strengthening and several independent supply-side risks developing at the same time, Citi expects agricultural markets to remain vulnerable to further price increases heading into the end of 2026 and early 2027.