Copper prices are closing in on an all-time high as the threat of US import tariffs reshapes global metal flows, despite analysts saying the wider market is not suffering from an outright shortage.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange climbed as high as $14,343 per metric ton on Tuesday, putting it close to the record of $14,527.50. The rally followed orders to remove 65,400 tons of copper from LME warehouses in recent days.
Those large withdrawal requests, known as warrant cancellations, reversed some of the reassurance provided by last week’s increase in available inventories on both the LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange.
Analysts argue that the latest price strength reflects a growing shortage of readily available copper outside the US rather than a worldwide deficit. The metal remains essential for electricity networks, electric vehicles and rapidly expanding AI data centres.
US-bound copper flows tighten supplies elsewhere
Higher copper prices in the US have created an incentive for traders to move metal into COMEX warehouses before the possible introduction of tariffs on refined copper from 2027.
That arbitrage has reduced available inventories in other regions, making a market previously expected to record a substantial surplus appear considerably tighter.
Robert Edwards, principal copper analyst at CRU, said the tariff threat has transformed what should have been a surplus this year into “at best a balanced market” if copper accumulated in the US is effectively removed from global availability.
COMEX inventories have increased for 46 consecutive days, reaching a record 675,185 metric tons as traders take advantage of higher US prices. CRU had previously forecast a global copper surplus of 639,000 tons for 2026.
“If (U.S.) imports keep coming in as they have been, then it’s going to look like a deficit market in reality,” Edwards said.
US imports of refined copper cathodes reached almost 885,000 tons during the first half of 2026, around 3% above the same period last year and more than twice the volume imported during the first six months of 2024.
For the whole of 2025, US refined copper imports reached a record 1.64 million tons.
Potential 2027 tariff keeps traders guessing
Refined copper was ultimately exempted from tariffs last year, a decision that initially triggered a sharp fall in prices.
However, the US Commerce Department was due to submit a report on copper markets to the White House by June 30 this year, allowing President Donald Trump to decide whether to introduce a 15% tariff from January 1, 2027, followed by an increase to 30% from 2028.
Macquarie strategist Alice Fox said the huge volume of copper already accumulated in COMEX warehouses could take a considerable period to work through.
“Based on our numbers, you’re looking at years for that metal to get consumed,” Fox said.
Although Macquarie sees greater downside risks for copper, Fox added that prices would “massively spike” if Trump proceeds with the tariff.
Glencore sees uncertainty as the bigger price driver
Glencore chief executive Gary Nagle has a different interpretation of the rally, arguing that uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy is more important than the tariff itself.
Nagle believes an eventual announcement, whether the tariff is set at zero, 15% or 30%, could cause copper prices to fall because traders would finally have greater clarity.
“You’ll have these high stockpiles in the U.S., which over time will be drawn down for use … not to be exported again” because of the associated costs, Nagle said during an earnings call.
Copper currently held in COMEX warehouses has already had the relevant duties paid.
If that inventory remains in the US, however, other markets could continue facing constrained supplies. China, the world’s largest copper-smelting country, may have limited ability to compensate because of strong domestic consumption, according to Amelia Fu, head of commodities market strategy at Bank of China International.
Fu pointed to low inventories, mine disruptions and the outage at Indonesia’s Gresik smelter as additional sources of tightness.
“We could see new record highs in copper prices in coming weeks or months,” she said.