Bank of America raised its growth forecast for the US semiconductor industry, projecting an 18% compound annual growth rate between 2026 and 2030, compared with its previous estimate of 14%.
The bank attributed the revision primarily to higher expectations for memory chips and server-related components, with data centres expected to contribute to industry demand.
BofA now forecasts the semiconductor industry’s total addressable market will reach $3.2 trillion by 2030, up from its previous estimate of $2.7 trillion.
The bank expects memory and data-centre products to account for much of the expansion, alongside an anticipated recovery in demand from the automotive and industrial sectors.
Semiconductor Market Forecast at $3.2 Trillion
According to BofA, the semiconductor industry took approximately 50 years to reach $1 trillion in sales but could double its current estimated market size of $1.7 trillion within four years.
The forecast reflects the bank’s expectations for continued investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centres, as well as increased demand for memory capacity.
BofA cited customer orders and capacity commitments across the data-centre and AI sectors as factors supporting its revised estimates.
Wafer Equipment Forecasts Increased
Bank of America also raised its forecasts for the wafer fabrication equipment market.
The bank now expects spending to reach $156 billion in 2026, compared with its previous estimate of $144 billion. That would represent a 33% increase from the prior year.
For 2027, BofA increased its forecast to $210 billion from $190 billion, representing projected annual growth of 34%.
The revisions primarily reflect higher expected spending on memory manufacturing equipment, particularly for DRAM production.
BofA forecasts DRAM equipment spending of $61 billion in 2026 and $85 billion in 2027.
By 2030, the bank estimates the overall wafer fabrication equipment market could reach $360 billion, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of approximately 23% between 2026 and 2030.
Memory and GPU Pricing Remain in Focus
BofA said memory prices for both DRAM and NAND chips were stable on a week-over-week basis.
Rental pricing for Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) B200 GPUs stood at $5.72 per hour, less than 10% below the March peak of approximately $6.10 per hour.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has gained 67% year to date.
According to the report, the semiconductor group trades at approximately 18 times next-12-month earnings, compared with a multiple of about 19 times for the S&P 500.