Goldman Sachs has reduced its global smartphone shipment forecasts for 2026 through 2028, citing continued cost pressures and a growing share of premium devices that the bank expects to be less sensitive to price changes.
The investment bank lowered its shipment estimates by 1 million units for 2026, 8 million for 2027 and 0.2 million for 2028.
Goldman now forecasts global smartphone shipments of 1.1 billion units in 2026, 1.2 billion in 2027 and 1.2 billion in 2028.
The revised estimates imply year-on-year shipment changes of negative 10% in 2026, followed by growth of 2% in both 2027 and 2028. Its previous forecasts had indicated changes of negative 10%, positive 3% and positive 1%, respectively.
Smartphone Market Value Forecast Raised
While reducing its unit shipment estimates, Goldman Sachs increased its forecasts for the value of the global smartphone market to reflect higher expected average selling prices.
The bank estimates that market value will increase 8% year-on-year to $624 billion in 2026, followed by growth of 5% to $655 billion in 2027 and 3% to $674 billion in 2028.
Goldman attributed its higher value forecasts partly to increased memory costs and an expected shift towards premium smartphones priced above $600.
The projections therefore imply a divergence between smartphone volumes and market value, with the bank expecting higher average prices to support market value despite its reduced shipment forecasts.
Foldable Smartphone Estimates Reduced
Goldman Sachs also lowered its forecasts for global foldable smartphone adoption, although the bank continues to expect penetration to increase over the forecast period.
It now estimates foldable devices will account for 3.1% of global smartphone shipments in 2026, rising to 5.7% in 2027 and 6.5% in 2028. Previous estimates were 3.6%, 5.9% and 6.8%, respectively.
In unit terms, Goldman forecasts foldable smartphone shipments of 35 million in 2026, 66 million in 2027 and 77 million in 2028. Those estimates are 14%, 4% and 5% below its previous projections, respectively.
The bank expects new foldable products from major manufacturers to contribute to adoption and referred to a potential foldable iPhone DUO as part of its outlook.
Premium Devices Expected to Take Larger Share
Goldman Sachs expects the shift towards higher-priced smartphones to continue, supported by new device formats and features that the bank believes could create additional use cases and changes in the user experience.
The shipment, market-value and foldable-device figures represent Goldman Sachs forecasts and are subject to changes in consumer demand, pricing, product launches and other market conditions.