Adobe forecasts that traffic from artificial intelligence tools to US retail websites will increase 130% during the upcoming holiday shopping season, exceeding expected growth from paid search and social media referrals.
AI-referred traffic is projected to rise 159% year over year on Thanksgiving, 95% on Black Friday and 88% on Cyber Monday, according to Adobe. By comparison, paid search traffic is expected to increase 4%, while traffic from social media is forecast to grow 17%.
The projections come as consumers increasingly use AI tools to research and compare products online. In an Adobe survey of 5,000 consumers conducted in July, 77% of respondents who had used AI for online shopping said the technology increased their confidence in purchases. Another 69% said using AI made them less likely to return products.
US Online Holiday Sales Forecast at $275.1 Billion
Adobe expects US online sales between November 1 and December 31 to reach $275.1 billion, representing a 6.7% increase from the previous year.
Cyber Week, spanning Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, is forecast to generate $47.5 billion in online spending, up 7.4% year over year and accounting for approximately 17% of total holiday-season online sales.
Cyber Monday is expected to remain the largest online shopping day, with sales forecast at $15.1 billion, an increase of 6.2%.
Black Friday spending is projected to increase 9.2% to $12.9 billion. Adobe expects discounts on electronics, apparel and appliances to contribute to activity during the event.
Thanksgiving online spending is forecast to reach $6.9 billion, up 8.5%, with mobile devices expected to account for a record 63% of purchases by value that day.
Mobile and Buy Now, Pay Later Spending Expected to Increase
Adobe forecasts Buy Now, Pay Later spending of $21.3 billion across November and December, representing year-over-year growth of 6.6%.
Cyber Monday BNPL spending is projected to reach $1.09 billion, which would mark a second consecutive year above $1 billion. Black Friday BNPL transactions are expected to generate $807 million.
Mobile devices are forecast to account for 57.4% of overall online holiday spending and 82% of BNPL transactions.
Adobe expects discounts to reach their largest levels during Cyber Week, at approximately 30% below listed prices.
Electronics Expected to Remain Largest Online Category
Electronics are forecast to generate $63.3 billion in holiday sales, up 5.9%, making the segment the largest category in Adobe’s projections.
Apparel spending is expected to reach $51.3 billion, representing growth of 4.7%. Grocery sales are forecast to increase 10.3% to $26.1 billion, while furniture spending is projected to rise 7.3% to $33.4 billion.
Adobe also expects some holiday spending to take place earlier in the season. October online sales are forecast at $95.8 billion, up 8%, including $9.9 billion during the October 6-7 Prime Day event.
Products Adobe expects to be among the season’s sellers include Nintendo Switch 2, Sony PlayStation 5 and PS5 Pro, Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro, Meta AI Glasses and AirPods Pro 3.