Crude futures weakened slightly as the market awaits OPEC+’s crucial decision to extend or deepen supply cuts.
“The outlook for the oil market in 2024 will largely depend on OPEC+ policy,” ING said.
DNB Markets said OPEC’s core members could be motivated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to take on deeper output cutsbut a quota rollover is still seen as the easiest way forward.
“Any deeper cut has primarily to be shouldered by Saudi, Russia, UAE and Kuwait,” DNB said. “However, a pressure for deeper cuts could result in a non-deal.”
Reaching consensus among the group’s members will be challenging amid disputes over production targets and Brent crude above $80 a barrel. Therefore, it is more likely that the meeting will result in Saudi Arabia extending its unilateral production cut into 2024.
Further support to prices on Wednesday likely stemmed from disruptions to oil loadings in the Black Sea, with Kazakhstan’s energy ministry indicating that output at its largest fields has been cut by 56%, ING added.