Copper prices fell on signs of weakening consumption in China this month, while aluminum was down and gold broadly flat as the market continued to price in interest-rate cuts and geopolitical risks.
The lithium market is likely to remain oversupplied for several years, before falling back into deficit from 2027 as demand growth again outpaces production, Macquarie said.
“This translates to lower near-term prices offset by improve price outlook over the longer term.”
Macquarie cut its spodumene price forecasts by 61%-74% in 2024-2026 and by 2%-37% in 2027-2028, but raised them by 9%-19% for 2029-2030.
The bank is now projecting a spodumene price of $1,416/metric ton in 2024, down from roughly $3,744/ton in 2023. By 2028, the price should return to around $3,469/ton.